In terms of famous last words those of Civil War Union General John Sedgwick should be included in any decent collection. They were spoken while peering over a parapet with his men urging him not to expose himself to enemy fire. He said: “They can’t hit an elephant at this distance…” I guess the main point is that underestimating your enemy is never a good idea.
This point is equally relevant when it comes to the ‘Islamic State’ or ISIS. I’ve seen many post-mortems over the past few months as if ISIS, and with it the phenomenon of terror inspired by Islam, is a thing of the past. Simple observation should tell us that the latter is simply not true. Attacks, often of the ‘lone wolf’ variety continue unabated. Which leaves us with an important question, will ISIS survive and, if so, will it be able to pull off large scale attacks once again? I’m not a prophet so obviously cannot answer this question definitively, but I do want to offer a few observations. These range from positive to rather grim and I will present them in that order.
The ‘Caliphate’ is Done For (for the moment at least). It is hard to overstate the sheer brute force with which ISIS was hit from the air during the Trump presidency. This meant that it eventually found it impossible to hold on to the territories it controlled in eastern Syria and Iraq. There are a few tiny pockets where ISIS members are eking out a clandestine existence but as an organised force, let alone as a ‘state’ it is done for. Those loyal to ISIS were either killed, are in camps or went back to where they came from (and thereby hangs a tale). This is not to say that the ‘Caliphate’ might not arise again at some point of the future. For the moment, however, it is definitely not somewhere from where effective attacks can be launched.
ISIS Contributed to Disillusionment with Islam in the Arab World. Rates of unbelief and apostasy from Islam is skyrocketing in the Muslim world, admittedly from a very low base. In ‘exit interviews’ the brutality of groups like ISIS often show up as a factor in people’s decision to turn their backs on Islam. What is particularly revealing is that many left Islam after realising that ISIS explicitly based their policies on Islamic teachings. In this sense, the ‘radical obedience’ of ISIS can very much be seen as an ‘own goal’ in terms of turning at least some people away from the religion they wanted to promote.
Several ISIS ‘Copycats’ are Currently Stronger than the Original. The initial success of ISIS in Iraq and Syria led to the emergence of many movements who sought to replicate their strategies and image. Some of these movements formally pledged allegiance to ISIS while others simply operate as a local expression of Islamist fervour without maintaining official ties with ISIS. In many cases these ‘copycats’ are now more powerful than the original movement. Those causing particular concern at the moment is the ISIS affiliate in East Africa (currently wreaking havoc in Mozambique), ISIS-K (a movement based in eastern Afghanistan that was massively emboldened by the recapture of the country by the Taliban) and the ISIS affiliate in Libya. None of these groups have been militarily defeated as of the time of writing and they, and others like them, will continue to destabilise the regions in which they operate.
Communications Have Been Disrupted but Not Destroyed. Islamist movements have always been very savvy in using the latest technology to ‘get the word out’ and to facilitate communication between members. ISIS had an entire department that focussed on social media outreach. While accounts linked to this operation have largely been wiped from Twitter and Facebook that does not mean that that was the end of the organization’s ability to weaponize the internet for its purposes. Activities simply moved underground, onto the ‘dark web’ and encrypted messaging apps. On some levels this makes the digital operations of ISIS even more dangerous as it is becoming ever harder to monitor and suppress.
Many ISIS Members are Now Embedded in Western and Other Non-Muslim Countries. It seems that there is hardly a country with a Muslim population that ISIS did not recruit from. While many non-Arab recruits were treated as nothing more than cannon fodder by ISIS commanders, some did rise to prominent positions within the organisation and received valuable experience and training. Some of these ISIS veterans made it back home or went to other countries hidden in the refugee streams that have been entering many countries without even the most rudimentary vetting. While perhaps not able to effectively link up with other like-minded veterans some of them are still in touch with the organization and may be particularly susceptible to its calls to cause carnage for the sake of Allah through ‘lone wolf attacks’.
The Ideology that Inspired ISIS is Alive and Well. What many in the West find particularly hard to understand, or stomach, is the fact that much of the ideological and theological underpinnings of ISIS can be traced back directly to the Qur'an and respected Islamic traditions. Sure, they displayed a particularly brutal zeal in following these sources, but it is not like they were utterly unable to anchor their activities in the teachings of orthodox Islam. Ultimately, we are engaged in a war of ideas with groups like this, and part of this will mean having to challenge the very foundations on which they are built. Which will involve challenging the truth-claims of Islam itself. For many this is an unpalatable prospect, but I believe that it will be unavoidable in the long run. Otherwise, a continual regrouping of similar groups, and the resultant large-scale attacks, seems all but inevitable.
There is obviously much more that can be said about the current state of ISIS, but I trust that what was said above will give you at least some hope and point to a way forward. Our enemy is not to be underestimated but is also uniquely vulnerable since they rely on the rather shaky handhold (contrary to Qur'an 2:256) of Islam to inform, sustain and inspire them.
Kind regards,
Peter
My book ‘Questioning Islam – Tough Questions and Honest Answers About the Muslim Religion’ will provide you with a thorough introduction to how the truth-claims of Islam can be undermined. Something that will ultimately effectively undermine all so-called radical groups.
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