By now most media outlets around the world have moved on from the utter catastrophe that was the withdrawal of coalition troops from Iraq. You can be very sure, however, that the people of Afghanistan will take somewhat longer to ‘move on’ themselves. Then there’s the fact that there are many around the Muslim world for whom the main takeaway is that that Afghanistan is, once again, in play as a haven for those who would like to conquer the world for Islam.
Many intelligent and well-informed commentators are raising significant concerns about the geopolitical risk posed by Afghanistan slipping back into Islamism. One thing, however, that rarely receives comment is the place of Afghanistan in Islamic eschatology. Collectively, these can be described as Muhammad’s ‘Black Flag Prophecies’ that can be found among the hadiths (Islamic traditions). Here are a few of them:
"When the black flags come from Khorasan go to them, even if you have to crawl on snow, for among them is the Khalifa from Allah, the Mahdi" (Abd al-‘Alim in al-Mahdi al-Muntazar) Khorasan is a province of Afghanistan. The fulfilment of this prophecy is, therefore, directly tied to the territory that is, once again, under the control of the Taliban.
"Surely black flags will appear from the Khorasan until the people (under the leadership of this flag) will tie their horses with the olive trees between Bait-e-Lahya and Harasta.” (Nuaim Ibn Hammad in Kitab Al-Fita) The places mentioned here are locations in Jerusalem. In other words, the prophecy states that Islamic armies marching under the ‘Black Flag’ will re-conquer the Holy Land.
"Three will fight one another for your treasure, each one of them the son of a caliph, but none of them will gain it. Then the black banners will come from the east, and they will kill you in an unprecedented manner. When you see them, then pledge your allegiance to them even if you have to crawl over the snow, for that is the caliph from Allah, Mahdi" (Sunan Ibn Majah, 4084) The Mahdi, refers to a kind of Messiah figure that will, according to Islamic eschatology, herald the coming of the last days.
On the most basic level these hadiths explain why ISIS and Al-Qaida both produced flags with the Shahada (Islamic Confession of Faith) on a black background. More fundamentally I would like to argue that we should take prophecies like these seriously. Not in terms of regarding them as accurate of course, but certainly in terms of recognizing that they have a magnetic pull on at least some of the Muslim faithful.
I believe, in light of this, that there will almost certainly be moves by some radical groups to once again launch attacks from Afghanistan. The heady mix of ‘last days fervor’ and the practical reality of a friendly regime in the vicinity of ‘Korasan of the Black Flags’ will simply be too potent to ignore.
For much more about the role of the hadiths in informing modern trends within the Islamic world, see my book ‘Nothing to do With Islam? - Investigating the West’s Most Dangerous Blind Spot’
Kind regards,
Peter
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